Evidence · every number has a command

−0.0%

Less lost to arbitrage than a real plain Uniswap v4 pool at the same 5 bps fee, at λ 39%. Replayed minute by minute on a Base mainnet fork against the real PoolManager and official Aqua.

ETH/USD · Coinbase 1-minute closes$2,635.14 → $2,799.54 +6.24%
LP loss vs a perfectly rebalanced portfolio

Plain Uniswap v4 pool · 834 trades
$1.077
Iceberg · v4 hook, λ 100% · 834 trades
$1.076
Iceberg · v4 hook, λ 50% · 938 trades
−17.6%
$0.888
Iceberg · v4 hook, λ 39% · 971 trades
−19.3%
$0.869
Iceberg · 1inch Aqua, λ 50% · 938 trades
−17.6%
$0.888

λ 100% reproduces the plain pool to 0.09%. The v4 hook and the Aqua position at λ 50% lose exactly the same: one kernel, two venues.

Reproduce it

−19.3%

Real replay, 21 Sep 2026

1,440 minutes at 5 bps on a Base fork. LP loss vs a perfectly rebalanced portfolio: plain v4 $1.077 · λ 50% $0.888 · λ 39% $0.869. The Aqua position at λ 50% lost exactly what the hook did.

REPLAY_MINUTES=1440 BASE_RPC_URL=https://mainnet.base.org forge test --match-contract Replay21Sep -vv
−32%

Fee-aware λ, 7 days

On a week of real ETH/USD: −32% loss at 1 bps, −17% at 5 bps. At 30 bps the best λ is 100%, so the keeper tunes λ to each pool's fee.

node research/lambda_policy.mjs
1e-16

Kernel matches the paper

λ* within 1e-16, Theorem 1 within 5e-15, ln within 8e-11 of the float reference.

forge test --match-path test/unit/IcebergMath.t.sol -vv
6/6

1inch's own invariants hold

CoreInvariants (symmetry, additivity, quote == swap, monotonicity, rounding favours maker, balance sufficiency) at λ = 1, 0.5 and 0.25, with and without fee.

forge test --match-path test/invariant/PAInvariants.t.sol
52

Works on real Base contracts

11 Aqua fork tests and 11 v4 hook fork tests among 52 in total, against the real PoolManager, Aqua, Morpho and Chainlink.

BASE_RPC_URL=https://mainnet.base.org forge test
$0.20

Mainnet run rehearsed first

The exact mainnet flow on a fork with the real wallet: 64 transactions, then the withdraw script returned every USDC and all ETH except gas.

./scripts/rehearse_mainnet.sh
Why vault-held inventory

0.0%never filled
0strategies shipped to Aqua on Base since launch
0makers behind them
0makers never got a single fill
0of 80 live never-filled strategies have no money behind them

Iceberg's idle side earns in Morpho instead of waiting. node research/aqua_base_study.mjs

Partially Active AMM (Ko 2026, arXiv 2602.09887) on 1inch Aqua & Uniswap v4 · Base mainnetBuilt at ETHGlobal Tokyo 2026 · GitHub ↗